Going-concern forecast (§ 19 InsO)

The going-concern forecast is one of two stages in the over-indebtedness test under § 19(2) InsO. First, the question is whether continuation of the business is predominantly likely — the relevant forecast period generally covers the current and the following financial year. If the forecast is positive, the company has no duty to file regardless of a balance-sheet deficit; the asset-based test is then skipped entirely.

If the forecast is negative — the company is expected to become unable to pay its debts before the forecast period ends — an additional over-indebtedness balance sheet at liquidation values must be prepared. If that shows a deficit, over-indebtedness within the meaning of § 19 InsO exists, and management is obliged under § 15a InsO to file without undue delay, at the latest within six weeks. The forecast itself rests on an integrated financial plan (liquidity, P&L and balance-sheet planning) and is, in practice, often documented as part of an IDW S6 restructuring opinion.

For buyers and investors, the going-concern forecast is an early indicator: a negative forecast not only signals an impending filing duty, it also determines which valuation basis — going-concern or liquidation values — is realistic for negotiations. Anyone acquiring a distressed company pre-insolvency should sanity-check the underlying planning themselves; management is personally liable for an overly optimistic forecast, which limits how much weight to put on plans drawn up under time pressure.